Thursday, 21 February 2013
World Club Challenge 2013
2013 World Club Challenge
Leeds Rhinos vs. Melbourne Storm
Headingley Carnegie Stadium
Friday, February 22nd 2013. 20:00 GMT
It's that time of year again where League fans on the other side of the world huddle around their radios to listen to their Champions, having triumphed through the previous NRL season travel to the old country to take on Leeds.
This year it's the turn of the Melbourne Storm, coming off their “first” Premiership in over 10 years, the Storm come seeking their “second” WCC title.
This game is often referred to as Leeds vs. NRL (this may actually be the first time) as Leeds have featured in 4 of the last 5 renewals of the WCC, splitting those match-ups with Manly and Melbourne.
LEEDS RHINOS
So, Leeds. Well clearly they have the upper hand in this clash as the Super League season has already started, with Leeds picking up wins against Hull FC and Salford and losing to Castleford. They will also have home advantage as the WCC has been held in England every since 1998. The 1997 WCC was a farcical 22 team tournament which put the future of the competition in doubt, while the previous title was held since Wigan's victory at the old ANZ stadium in Brisbane in 1994. Not only do the Rhinos have a home advantage in this tie, they also have the “world's greatest player” in Sir Kevin Sinfield of Oldham. Sinfield has dragged this Leeds team to the majority of their success behind a strong pack and straight running backs that only seem to play organized and successful rugby in February, September and the first Saturday in October. Another thing to consider when looking forward to this clash of titans (but not shoulders) is that the “famous” Headingley pitch was relaid in the winter and in true Yorkshire style, many locals complained about the £1m cost. This is the first new pitch at Headingley since 1963, and despite the obvious need to provide a quality playing surface for our Australian visitors, the Rhinos declined to renovate their crumbling relic of a stadium with the uncovered West terrace and the 80+ year old South Stand getting a reprieve from modernization yet again, much to the delight of the whippet-fancying masses.
Leeds Squad (from):
Watkins, Moon, Hall, McGuire, Burrow, Leuluai, McShane, Peacock, Jones-Buchanan, Ablett, Sinfield (c), Ward, Delaney, Kirke, Clarkson, Achurch, Moore, Keinhorst, Vickery.
The main dangers to Melbourne are Danny McGuire, Ryan Hall and obviously Sir Kev. McGuire will be playing in his 300th game for Leeds and has racked up 224 tries, particularly impressive for a half back. Although he's lost a step of pace since his debut 12 years ago, McGuire is still a threat, especially as he has a knack of popping up on the inside when one of the outside backs makes a break, and more often than not, his tries are walk-ins under the posts. Hall can legitimately be referred to as one of the world's best wingers, and with the exception of Wigan's Sam Tomkins and the world's best Sir Kev, Hall would be the only English player to make it into a World Dream Team. While McGuire may be Super League's all-time leading tryscorer, Hall is catching him at an alarming rate. With 100 tries in 119 appearances, the maths graduate will be a big danger on the wing and may cause problems for Melbourne's Mahe Fonua. Kevin Sinfield is clearly a cut above the rest on this field, and having watched him first hand drag Leeds into the Super League grand final, he then almost single-handedly beat Warrington at Old Trafford to lift his 5th Premiership. Despite being the world's greatest Five-Eighth, Sinfield has also played at hooker, lock, second row, full back, goalkeeper, defenseman, third-base and whatever other position he likes, although not quarterback as Danny McGuire usually plays there. He often referees games and although he may not be afforded that opportunity in this game, that won't stop a man like Sir Kev. Leeds will miss recently converted fullback Zak Hardaker, who sits this one out with a broken thumb.
Leeds will look to bulldoze Melbourne in a way that Canterbury couldn't in the Grand Final and key to that will be 40 year old prop and Great Britain captain Jamie Peacock. I would expect coach Brian McDermott to set his team's stall out to punish the Melbourne pack for five tackles then ask Sir Kev to make Storm fullback Billy Slater chase his kick on the last. Leeds will also try to pin Melbourne into a corner and force the error then spread the ball wide to Hall, Ben Jones-Bishop, Kallum Watkins and homesick Joel Moon to attack the in-experienced Fonua, Justin O'Neill, Will Chambers and elder statesman of the Storm back-line Sisa Waqa. If they can implement this game-plan and limit the effectiveness of the Melbourne spine, they will have a great chance of becoming the most successful side in WCC history.
MELBOURNE STORM
Melbourne came over last week to acclimatize to the British conditions and trained in London for a week before traveling to Leeds via Huddersfield where most of their squad took in the Super League game between the Giants and Brett Finch and Ryan Hoffman's old club Wigan. The Storm are yet to play a competitive match this season and during their trial matches, they have featured mixed squads of young players including the U20s and a sprinkling of experience. This game will be their 4th appearance in the WCC and 3rd in the past 6 years, losing 11-4 to Leeds in 2008 and “winning” the title in 2010 with a 18-10 victory over the Rhinos. Both of those game were played at Elland Road, so for many in the squad, this will be their first taste of Headingley. Interestingly enough, the two players who have featured at Headingley Finch and Hoffman have never lost there, playing out a 22-22 draw in 2011 and Finch's last visit resulted in a 50-8 victory. Good omens for anyone wearing purple tonight. The Storm have a good mixture of youth and experience with the average age of the starting 13 just over 25 with the elder statesman of the side Billy “The Kid” Slater. Despite the youth on display, the starting line-up have accrued 75 international caps as well as 60 Origin appearances and there are two Golden Boot winners; Melbourne, Queensland and Australia captain Cameron Smith and Billy Slater. They also boast England five-eighth of the future in Halifax lad Gareth Widdop who will add to his total of 8 caps whenever the world's greatest player steps aside.
Melbourne Starting Line-up:
Slater, Fonua, O'Neill, Chambers, Waqa, Widdop, Cronk, J Bromwich, Smith (c), Norrie, Harris, Hoffman, Hinchcliffe
Replacements (from): Ryles, Finch, Vave, Moors K Browich, Setu
Melbourne were successful last season by grinding out the hard yards and playing mistake free football then allowing Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater to bamboozle defenses from 20m out. That formula has served them well and although they may be lacking in match sharpness, once the forwards get a few carries under their belt, they'll be ready to perform. The ability to offload will be key for Melbourne as Leeds have a tendency to tackle by mob in order to attempt to set the tone in these big games, and running at Jamie Peacock has to be their aim. Although he has been a class player throughout his illustrious career, he is vulnerable and if the Storm can isolate him and force him to make 40+ tackles in this game, he'll be spent. Another key to Storm victory is limiting Danny McGuire and Rob Burrow, Burrow especially has a lightning dart of pace and cannot be allowed to run from dummy half. The markers will have to be alert at every play-the-ball and get Burrow to ground as quickly and efficiently as possible. When defending their own line, the Storm must be careful not to buy any of McGuire's dummies and look to defend the flat pass to an outside runner cutting back across the field. These predictable moves from the Rhinos seem to be missed by all of their opponents in the big games, and should Melbourne neglect to pay attention to them it may be their downfall.
VERDICT
This has all the hallmarks of a classic (well I would say that wouldn't I) the experience and “been there before” know-how of Leeds against the youth and international star quality of Melbourne. Burrow vs Smith, McGuire vs Cronk, Sinfield vs Widdop. There are key match-ups all over the field, but this game will be won and lost in the same place it always is, the pack. Melbourne have the physical ability and experience of a much quicker game to dominate Leeds. If they can maintain a quick play-the-ball and offer regular service to the outside backs, then the excellent kicking game of Cronk, Widdop and Smith should put them over the top. The Storm showed in the Grand Final that they have plenty of bite and determination, while an appetite for defense under the stewardship of Craig Bellamy continues. This is the team that shutout the Doggies in the second half of the NRL Grand Final, Slater is one of the greatest fullbacks to play the game and second only as a defensive fullback to Kris Radlinski. Leeds will come out of the gates fast and look to rile the Storm and involve the Headingley crowd, Sinfield will once again come to the fore and direct his troops all over the field. Do not be surprised if they force a couple of goal line dropouts early and pin Melbourne in their own 20 for large periods of this game. In the end the difference for me is the play-making ability of the Storm spine. Cronk and Widdop in the halves creating overlaps and holes in the Leeds line for the back five to exploit and Smith's kicks from dummy half to Slater in the in-goal have been a highlight of their play and that will continue in this game. Leeds are a champion side and they won't go down easily. Sinfield won't allow that to happen, and with big performances from Peacock, Hall, Burrow and Jones-Buchanan they will be in this one for at least 60 minutes. An accurate kicking game is always key in a game of this magnitude and with the world's greatest five-eighth, Leeds will be able to turn the Melbourne pack around time and time again and make Slater return the ball from inside his own 10m line. If Burrow and McGuire are allowed to consistently make meters from the play-the-ball, then the big Leeds forwards will be able to take the Rhinos close to the Melbourne line and with Hall on the field, there's a chance they can score at any time. The rotation of impact forwards for Leeds will allow them to continue to hit the ball up at pace and like with Melbourne, if they can offload in the tackle, there will be mismatches out wide and Moon, who has been in impressive scoring form now that he's closer to Sydney has the pace and ability to get through the Melbourne line.
At the end of this match, I think Melbourne will come out on top, and I think their defensive ability will allow them to beat the spread and with the game-breakers in their side, I think they'll have too much firepower for this aging Leeds side.
ADVICE
4 pts Melbourne -6.5 points (Evens William Hill)
2 pts Melbourne to win by 6-10 points (5/1 BlueSquare)
2 pts Mahe Fonua first tryscorer (10/1 Paddy Power)
1 pt Joel Moon first tryscorer (16/1 Paddy Power)
0.25 pts Ryan Hall first tryscorer and Melbourne to win by 6-10 points (45/1 Bet365)
0.25 pts Mahe Fonua first tryscorer and Melbourne to win by 11-15 points (45/1 Bet365)
0.25 pts Joel Moon first tryscorer and Leeds to win by 1-5 points (50/1 Bet 365)
0.25 pts Ryan Hoffman first tryscorer and Melbourne to win by 11-15 points (115/1 Bet 365)
Saturday, 19 January 2013
NHL 2013 Season Overview
As I have included regular season previews in my previous two posts, I will now lay down some outrights and hopefully won't have to add too many sections to this post where I see some value and adjustments to how we trade this market.
East Outright
Bruins (8/1) The Atlantic teams are too short, and if Boston can win their division, they are a top three seed and their depth should help them get past most teams.
Sabres (16/1) Have bulked up over the offseason and still retain a lot of speed in their forwards. Goaltending will once again be strong.
Capitals (19/1) Change in philospohies should help them become a contender once more and Alex Ovechkin can score any time he is on the ice.
West Outright
Blues (8/1) Best defensive team in the league, will be tough for any team to beat.
Wild (14/1) Made a lot of big money free agent signings and goals was the only thing they lacked last year.
Oilers (20/1) Young squad, 3 consecutive No. 1 draft picks, if they can stay healthy and one the ice, they may be the last team skating.
Stanley Cup Winners
Rangers (10/1) Too short to win the conference, and if they win the conference you have to fancy them to win everything.
Bruins (18/1) They've only lost 4 players from the 20 that clinched game 7 in Vancouver.
Blackhawks (16/1) Should be suited by the shortened season and they're ready to compete again.
East Outright
Bruins (8/1) The Atlantic teams are too short, and if Boston can win their division, they are a top three seed and their depth should help them get past most teams.
Sabres (16/1) Have bulked up over the offseason and still retain a lot of speed in their forwards. Goaltending will once again be strong.
Capitals (19/1) Change in philospohies should help them become a contender once more and Alex Ovechkin can score any time he is on the ice.
West Outright
Blues (8/1) Best defensive team in the league, will be tough for any team to beat.
Wild (14/1) Made a lot of big money free agent signings and goals was the only thing they lacked last year.
Oilers (20/1) Young squad, 3 consecutive No. 1 draft picks, if they can stay healthy and one the ice, they may be the last team skating.
Stanley Cup Winners
Rangers (10/1) Too short to win the conference, and if they win the conference you have to fancy them to win everything.
Bruins (18/1) They've only lost 4 players from the 20 that clinched game 7 in Vancouver.
Blackhawks (16/1) Should be suited by the shortened season and they're ready to compete again.
NHL Eastern Conference 2013 Preview
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast
Division
Boston
Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto
Maple Leafs
Winners
: Boston Bruins (10/11 Ladbrokes)
The
Bruins have kept the majority of their roster from the last two
seasons intact and welcome Dougie Hamilton, the 9th
overall pick from the 2011 draft to the big team after spending a
year bulking up physically in Juniors. After Benoit Pouliot joined
the Lightning, there is an open spot on the third line, which looks
most likely to be filled by Chris Bourque, son of Bruins legend and
Hall of Famer Ray Bourque. Bourque will face competition through the
season for his spot, but as Jordan Caron in injured to start the
season, the man acquired from Washington will get the nod.
The
Bruins had 12 players playing in Europe during the lockout, including
both goalies, their first choice defensive pairing and their top two
centers. Tyler Seguin impressed while at EHC Biel in Switzerland,
almost averaging a goal a game and leading the Swiss league in goals
before returning to the Hub. Bruising power forwards Milan Lucic and
Nathan Horton stayed at home, Lucic stayed in Boston during the
lockout and celebrated the birth of his first baby Valentina on
Thursday, while Horton returns after missing the majority of last
season with a concussion. Both have looked sharp in training camp and
the top line with David Krejci at center could be one of the most
destructive in the league.
Tim
Thomas is sitting out the season “to
reconnect with the three F's. Friends, Family, and Faith.” I have
three F's for Thomas but they're all the same word and are followed
by off. Tuukka Rask takes over as the number 1 goaltender and will be
back up by Anton Khudobin. Rask has put up fine numbers behind Thomas
and even led the league in GAA and save percentage in 2010, but he
has struggled with injury the last two seasons, so if he can remain
healthy, the Bruins won't miss Thomas at all.
Playoff
Contenders : Ottawa Senators & Buffalo Sabres
The
Senators have solid goaltending and veteran leadership along with a
young defensive corps and stability within the organization. Daniel
Alfredsson has been a model professional throughout his career and at
the age of 40 this must be his last shot at winning the Cup.
The
Sabres have bulked up during the lockout and picked up agitator Steve
Ott and defenseman Adam Pardy to help them compete with the Bruins
after being pushed around by the Big Bad Bs in the last couple of
seasons, especially after Lucic's collision with Ryan Miller.
Although they have great goaltending in Miller, they still lack
toughness and with the schedule taking place in conference, they will
struggle with the more physical Eastern Conference style of play
No
Hopers : Montreal Canadiens & Toronto Maple Leafs
The
Canadiens are dreadful, and have done nothing on the ice to change
that. Off the ice, they've brought in Marc Begevin as the new GM and
Michel Therrien as head coach.
Toronto
are even worse than Montreal, a situation which will be compounded if
they trade for Roberto Luongo. Brian Burke was fired as GM after
years of hopeless trades and that won't be solved by the acquisition
of James van Riemsdyk from the Flyers.
Atlantic
Division
New
Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia
Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins
Winners
: New York Rangers (9/4 Victor)
The
Rangers have one of the youngest teams in the league and those fresh
legs will help with the compressed schedule of the 48 game season.
They were very consistent last season and were rewarded with the
number 1 seed in the East. I expect the same level of consistency
this season and John Tortorella will not allow his players to slacken
off in their pursuit of the Cup. The Rangers made the biggest
offseason acquisition in the league, finally prying sniper Rick Nash
from Columbus. They could put out a line of Marian Gaborik, Brad
Richards and Rick Nash, God help their opponents if they do. The
Rangers can also call one of the best goalies in hockey with reigning
Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes. They have a
young defense and plenty of experienced players that should take them
deep into this postseason.
Playoff
Contenders : Pittsburgh Penguins, Philadelphia Flyers & New
Jersey Devils
The
Penguins have Sidney Crosby back after a nightmare two seasons with
injury and the league's best player will once again propel his team
into the playoffs. Evgeni Malkin had to step into a leadership role
last season and he walked with with the Hart Trophy and the Art Ross
Trophy. Pittsburgh traded Jordan Staal to Carolina, but they won't
miss him too much as he's missed a lot of games in the past few
seasons. They have solid goaltending and Dan Bylsma always has his
troops ready for a battle.
The
Flyers knocked off the Penguins in the first round of the playoffs
last season and should be competitive once again. They've re-signed
Brian Boucher as back-up to Ilya Bryzgalov and acquired Luke Schenn
from Toronto to give Bryzgalov some help as it doesn't look like
Chris Pronger will return after suffering a nasty concussion last
season. Claude Giroux takes over as captain and he can continue to
grow into a superstar of the league in his fifth season with the
Flyers.
The
Devils will have Martin Brodeur back for his 20th
season with the Devils and having lost in the Stanley Cup Finals last
summer, they should be well placed to make another assault on the
playoffs. Although they lost Zach Parise to Minnesota, they signed
Krys Barch and re-signed or extended most of their squad before
free-agency.
No
Hopers : New York Islanders
The
Islanders can't move to Brooklyn quick enough because they are
garbage
Southeast
Division
Carolina
Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington
Capitals, Winnipeg Jets
Winner
: Washington Capitals (3/1 Paddy Power)
Newly
enshrined Hall of Famer Adam Oates is the new coach of the Capitals
after Dale Hunter was shown the door despite knocking off the
reigning Stanley Cup champions in last year's playoffs. Oates prefers
to play a much more attack oriented free flowing game than Hunter's
defensive shutdown hockey. All of that is good news to Alexander
Ovechkin who got himself engaged to Maria Kirilenko during the
lockout, and Ovi enjoys offense. He struggled towards the end of
Bruce Boudreau's tenure in Washington and reportedly clashed with
Hunter several times and was not impressed when asked to play a more
defensive style of hockey. The play-making freedom he will be awarded
under Oates should be the spark he needs to re-ignite his career and
although the Caps have lost Alexander Semin to Carolina, they should
have enough offense to compensate ($7 million was too high a price
for any self-respecting GM to pay for Semin) Braden Holtby impressed
at times during last season and especially in the playoffs,
out-dueling Tim Thomas in the first round and going close against
Henrik Lundqvist in the second round. So long as he can maintain that
form as a starter, Washington will have the best goaltending in the
division as Michael Neuvirth is an able backup.
Playoff
Contenders : Carolina Hurricanes & Tampa Bay Lightning
Carolina
were very busy during the offseason, picking up Jordan Staal and
Alexander Semin as mentioned they also re-signed defenseman Joe Corvo
and picked up Kevin Westgarth from the Kings. Along with Eric Staal,
Jeff Skinner and Cam Ward, the Canes already have a good core to
their team, and with Corvo becoming the oldest member of their squad
and only player over 31, they have plenty of youth on their side.
Tampa
are another one of the “last chance” teams and have stocked their
side with veterans for another tilt at the Cup after missing the
playoffs last season and coming up just short of the Stanley Cup
Finals in 2011. The Bolts brought in Sami Salo and Matt Carle in
free-agency and executed a trade-and-sign for Benoit Pouliot. The one
thing they lack of cohesive goaltending and that will be their
downfall.
No
Hopers : Florida Panthers & Winnipeg Jets
Florida
are rebuilding and will be ready to challenge in a couple of seasons,
but not yet.
Winnipeg
are in the wrong division, the wrong conference and as soon as the
NHL can figure out what to do with them, they'll start winning. At
the moment, they serve as a distraction as a road-trip.
FINAL EASTERN STANDINGS
1 Rangers
2 Bruins
3 Capitals
4 Penguins
5 Flyers
6 Senators
7 Sabres
8 Hurricanes
WHO CARES
Thursday, 27 September 2012
NRL Grand Final
NRL GRAND FINAL
This season's Grand Final pits 1st versus 2nd from the table after the weekly rounds as minor premiers Canterbury Bulldogs take on Melbourne Storm.
THE BACKGROUND
The Doggies last won the title in 2004 after defeating the Roosters. Last year's grand final winning coach Des Hasler joined from Manly, they look to have been galvanised and they come into this game having won 15 of their last 16. They knocked off Manly in week 1 of the finals and thumped Souths last week to set up this encounter. Their only defeat since May came in Canberra, losing 34-6 to the Raiders. That game aside, the have been consistent all season and as a result swept this year's Dally M awards, Hasler won coach of the year and Ben Barba, won the Dally M Medal as voted by the journos, the Provan-Summons medal as voted by the fans and the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for best single-game performance, against the Storm in a 20-4 win in round 16. He also grabbed 21 tries during the season and that translated to a share of the top try-scorer award. As a result of their dominance through the regular season, the Doggies had Barba named at fullback, Josh Morris at centre and Sam Kasiano at prop in the team of the year at the Dally M awards. Should Canterbury win, Hasler will become the first coach in history to win back-to-back Premierships with different clubs
The Bulldogs don't have any players from that 2004 championship side still active, but they do have plenty of experience with 5 of the squad having tasted the Grand Final previously Aiden Tolman, Krisnan Inu, Dene Halatau, David Stagg and Sam Perrett. Not to forget they have James Graham in his first season in Australia, he has played in 6 Super League Grand Finals, losing the last five.
The Bulldogs have named an unchanged side for the third week in succession and the only problem Des Hasler has is deciding who to leave out.
Bulldogs
1. Ben Barba
2. Sam Perrett
3. Josh Morris
4. Krisnan Inu
5. Jonathan Wright
6. Josh Reynolds
7. Kris Keating
8. Aiden Tolman
9. Michael Ennis
10. Sam Kasiano
11. Frank Pritchard
12. Josh Jackson
13. Greg Eastwood
Interchange: James Graham, Dale Finucane, Corey Payne, David Stagg, Dene Halatau (one to be omitted, probably Halatau)
Melbourne come into the game having won their last 7, but after that loss to the Bulldogs in round 16, they lost their next 4. They've looked sensational in the first two weeks of the finals, disposing of the Rabbitohs 24-6 and beating Manly 40-12 last week.
Much of their success this season has been down to the play of their 'Big Three' Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater. The rest of the squad have ably supported that and bought into coach Craig Bellamy's philosophy and despite the controversy over the 2010 salary cap scandal they've been the most consistent side in the NRL during the last 6 or 7 seasons, in fact even although they were docked of all points in the 2010 season, they would've finished 5th in the table.
As a result of that salary cap breach, they were stripped of their Premierships in 2007 and 2009 and their minor premierships in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but hey retain 7 players with Grand Final experience in: Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Ryan Hoffman, Todd Lowrie, Dane Nielsen and Will Chambers.
The Storm have more doubts over fitness and as a result Craig Bellamy has named a 21 man squad as follows:
Storm
1. Billy Slater
2. Sisa Waqa
3. Dane Nielsen
4. Will Chambers
5. Justin O'Neill
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jessie Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Bryan Norrie
11. Sika Manu
12. Ryan Hoffman
13. Todd Lowrie
Interchange: Ryan Hinchcliffe, Kevin Proctor, Jaiman Lowe, Richie Fa'aoso, Rory Kostjayson, Mahe Fonua, Siosaia Vave, Anthony Quinn (four to be omitted, Fonua will play if Waqa fails a fitness test)
THE GAME
FOR BULLDOGS TO WIN: Well it's simply enough, they have to dominate Melbourne's pack, keep the big three quiet and get the ball to Barba inside 20m, easy eh? They need to stick to Melbourne early in the game as Melbourne are outstanding when they take a lead into the sheds. They've won 27 of their last 28 when leading at half time. They need to dig deep in the halves, Reynolds and Keating are up against Cooper Cronk (Queensland and Australia) and Gareth Widdop (England) so they have to make up for their lack of experience with real effort and contain Cronk's incisive running and link with Smith and Slater. If there's one area the Bulldogs look stronger it's in the forward pack and if the likes of Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard and James Graham can get them rolling forward it will put the Storm on the back-foot. They look strong in the centres too with New South Wales and Australia's Josh Morris and Krisnan Inu who is playing in his third grand final in four years and after two losses previously with Parramatta and New Zealand, he will be desperate to finally grab a premiership ring.
FOR STORM TO WIN: Dead simple job for them too, stop Ben Barba. As I mentioned earlier he won the Dally M Medal and won the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for his performance against the Storm scoring a try and setting up two others including his remarkable run from inside his own in-goal area to set up Josh Morris. If he gets the chance to stamp his class on this game, it could be curtains for the Storm, however he is up against, for me, The best fullback in the game in Billy Slater. Slater won last year's Dally M and won the Clive Churchill (man of the match) last time Melbourne played in the Grand Final. Melbourne's kicking game must be spot-on as it has been for most of the year. Cronk and Widdop need to find the corners at every opportunity. During the regular season 60.5% of the Storm's kicks in play found the grass, they excel at kicks around the goal line especially with Cameron Smith out of dummy half. Defensively they excel at diffusing bombs, they were the best team in the regular season safely defending 45 of 50 attacking bombs, and as Canterbury scored 27 tries during the regular season from kicks (best in the league) that defensive nous and skill has to show up on Sunday to keep the Doggies out. They say that to win big games, your big players need to show up and in Slater, Cronk and Smith, Melbourne have three of the biggest and arguably the best 1, 7, 9 combination in league.
THE VERDICT
The handicap line is set at Melbourne -2, but recent history tells us Grand Finals don't finish this close, you have to go back to Melbourne's win over St. George in 1999 to find a match with less than a try between the sides. So which side to pick? The Bulldogs have been almost unbeatable over the last 4 months, and with Hasler at the helm, they have all the tools to win this. However, the Storm were sensational in beating the Rabbitohs, completing 88% of their sets and despite the very wet and slippery conditions, they only made 5 errors and played old school footy, sticking it up their jumpers and running over the Bunnies. They dropped a bit in completion rate against Manly to a measly 82% but stepped up to dominate the Sea Eagles pack, limiting them to 774m against their own 1633m, breaking the Manly line 7 times and only missed 8 tackles. Particularly telling is the missed tackles stat, as Canterbury rely on breaking the line and cleaning up broken fields, which led to 3 of their tries against Souths last week. The Doggies however missed 22 tackles and although they gained 350m more metres in the game, they committed 8 errors and their success mainly came from their line breaks and offloads. If Melbourne can shut that down, they can win their first legitimate Premiership since 1999.
ADVICE
4pts Melbourne -2 : 10/11 generally (Melbourne -3.5, 2.10 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Will Chambers first try : 12/1 Paddy Power (13.00 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Ryan Hoffman any time try : 3/1 Ladbrokes (4.00 with Sportsbet)
2pts Cooper Cronk to win Clive Churchill Medal : 5/1 Coral (6.00 with Sportsbet)
1pt Sika Manu to win Clive Churchill Medal : 40/1 Bet365 (51.00 with Luxbet)
This season's Grand Final pits 1st versus 2nd from the table after the weekly rounds as minor premiers Canterbury Bulldogs take on Melbourne Storm.
THE BACKGROUND
The Doggies last won the title in 2004 after defeating the Roosters. Last year's grand final winning coach Des Hasler joined from Manly, they look to have been galvanised and they come into this game having won 15 of their last 16. They knocked off Manly in week 1 of the finals and thumped Souths last week to set up this encounter. Their only defeat since May came in Canberra, losing 34-6 to the Raiders. That game aside, the have been consistent all season and as a result swept this year's Dally M awards, Hasler won coach of the year and Ben Barba, won the Dally M Medal as voted by the journos, the Provan-Summons medal as voted by the fans and the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for best single-game performance, against the Storm in a 20-4 win in round 16. He also grabbed 21 tries during the season and that translated to a share of the top try-scorer award. As a result of their dominance through the regular season, the Doggies had Barba named at fullback, Josh Morris at centre and Sam Kasiano at prop in the team of the year at the Dally M awards. Should Canterbury win, Hasler will become the first coach in history to win back-to-back Premierships with different clubs
The Bulldogs don't have any players from that 2004 championship side still active, but they do have plenty of experience with 5 of the squad having tasted the Grand Final previously Aiden Tolman, Krisnan Inu, Dene Halatau, David Stagg and Sam Perrett. Not to forget they have James Graham in his first season in Australia, he has played in 6 Super League Grand Finals, losing the last five.
The Bulldogs have named an unchanged side for the third week in succession and the only problem Des Hasler has is deciding who to leave out.
Bulldogs
1. Ben Barba
2. Sam Perrett
3. Josh Morris
4. Krisnan Inu
5. Jonathan Wright
6. Josh Reynolds
7. Kris Keating
8. Aiden Tolman
9. Michael Ennis
10. Sam Kasiano
11. Frank Pritchard
12. Josh Jackson
13. Greg Eastwood
Interchange: James Graham, Dale Finucane, Corey Payne, David Stagg, Dene Halatau (one to be omitted, probably Halatau)
Melbourne come into the game having won their last 7, but after that loss to the Bulldogs in round 16, they lost their next 4. They've looked sensational in the first two weeks of the finals, disposing of the Rabbitohs 24-6 and beating Manly 40-12 last week.
Much of their success this season has been down to the play of their 'Big Three' Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater. The rest of the squad have ably supported that and bought into coach Craig Bellamy's philosophy and despite the controversy over the 2010 salary cap scandal they've been the most consistent side in the NRL during the last 6 or 7 seasons, in fact even although they were docked of all points in the 2010 season, they would've finished 5th in the table.
As a result of that salary cap breach, they were stripped of their Premierships in 2007 and 2009 and their minor premierships in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but hey retain 7 players with Grand Final experience in: Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith, Ryan Hoffman, Todd Lowrie, Dane Nielsen and Will Chambers.
The Storm have more doubts over fitness and as a result Craig Bellamy has named a 21 man squad as follows:
Storm
1. Billy Slater
2. Sisa Waqa
3. Dane Nielsen
4. Will Chambers
5. Justin O'Neill
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jessie Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Bryan Norrie
11. Sika Manu
12. Ryan Hoffman
13. Todd Lowrie
Interchange: Ryan Hinchcliffe, Kevin Proctor, Jaiman Lowe, Richie Fa'aoso, Rory Kostjayson, Mahe Fonua, Siosaia Vave, Anthony Quinn (four to be omitted, Fonua will play if Waqa fails a fitness test)
THE GAME
FOR BULLDOGS TO WIN: Well it's simply enough, they have to dominate Melbourne's pack, keep the big three quiet and get the ball to Barba inside 20m, easy eh? They need to stick to Melbourne early in the game as Melbourne are outstanding when they take a lead into the sheds. They've won 27 of their last 28 when leading at half time. They need to dig deep in the halves, Reynolds and Keating are up against Cooper Cronk (Queensland and Australia) and Gareth Widdop (England) so they have to make up for their lack of experience with real effort and contain Cronk's incisive running and link with Smith and Slater. If there's one area the Bulldogs look stronger it's in the forward pack and if the likes of Sam Kasiano, Frank Pritchard and James Graham can get them rolling forward it will put the Storm on the back-foot. They look strong in the centres too with New South Wales and Australia's Josh Morris and Krisnan Inu who is playing in his third grand final in four years and after two losses previously with Parramatta and New Zealand, he will be desperate to finally grab a premiership ring.
FOR STORM TO WIN: Dead simple job for them too, stop Ben Barba. As I mentioned earlier he won the Dally M Medal and won the Peter Frillingos Memorial Award for his performance against the Storm scoring a try and setting up two others including his remarkable run from inside his own in-goal area to set up Josh Morris. If he gets the chance to stamp his class on this game, it could be curtains for the Storm, however he is up against, for me, The best fullback in the game in Billy Slater. Slater won last year's Dally M and won the Clive Churchill (man of the match) last time Melbourne played in the Grand Final. Melbourne's kicking game must be spot-on as it has been for most of the year. Cronk and Widdop need to find the corners at every opportunity. During the regular season 60.5% of the Storm's kicks in play found the grass, they excel at kicks around the goal line especially with Cameron Smith out of dummy half. Defensively they excel at diffusing bombs, they were the best team in the regular season safely defending 45 of 50 attacking bombs, and as Canterbury scored 27 tries during the regular season from kicks (best in the league) that defensive nous and skill has to show up on Sunday to keep the Doggies out. They say that to win big games, your big players need to show up and in Slater, Cronk and Smith, Melbourne have three of the biggest and arguably the best 1, 7, 9 combination in league.
THE VERDICT
The handicap line is set at Melbourne -2, but recent history tells us Grand Finals don't finish this close, you have to go back to Melbourne's win over St. George in 1999 to find a match with less than a try between the sides. So which side to pick? The Bulldogs have been almost unbeatable over the last 4 months, and with Hasler at the helm, they have all the tools to win this. However, the Storm were sensational in beating the Rabbitohs, completing 88% of their sets and despite the very wet and slippery conditions, they only made 5 errors and played old school footy, sticking it up their jumpers and running over the Bunnies. They dropped a bit in completion rate against Manly to a measly 82% but stepped up to dominate the Sea Eagles pack, limiting them to 774m against their own 1633m, breaking the Manly line 7 times and only missed 8 tackles. Particularly telling is the missed tackles stat, as Canterbury rely on breaking the line and cleaning up broken fields, which led to 3 of their tries against Souths last week. The Doggies however missed 22 tackles and although they gained 350m more metres in the game, they committed 8 errors and their success mainly came from their line breaks and offloads. If Melbourne can shut that down, they can win their first legitimate Premiership since 1999.
ADVICE
4pts Melbourne -2 : 10/11 generally (Melbourne -3.5, 2.10 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Will Chambers first try : 12/1 Paddy Power (13.00 with Centrebet)
1.5pts Ryan Hoffman any time try : 3/1 Ladbrokes (4.00 with Sportsbet)
2pts Cooper Cronk to win Clive Churchill Medal : 5/1 Coral (6.00 with Sportsbet)
1pt Sika Manu to win Clive Churchill Medal : 40/1 Bet365 (51.00 with Luxbet)
Friday, 25 May 2012
Eurovision Song Contest 2012 Preview
As you should all be aware, this Saturday night sees the final of the Eurovision Song Contest. If this is the first you're hearing about it, you've missed two cracking semi-finals, including most of the novelty acts who have now been sent home. Tuesday night saw ten qualifiers produced for Saturday as did Thursday night. These twenty acts will join the big 5 (UK, France, Italy, Spain and Germany) and last year's winner and venue for the final, Azerbaijan, or as the host of the show will say, AZ-ER-BAI-JAN. The songs for the final have been drawn in a semi-random order and the order in which I preview them will be the order in which they will perform. The results will be provided by a 50:50 split between the public vote, and a jury of musical experts from each country that entered, regardless of whether they made the final or not. Points are allocated 12,10,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1, and the country with the most points gets the dubious honour of Eurovision winner and the expense of hosting next year's show. As my twitter followers may have noticed, I tweeted along to both semis, so I will include those thoughts too where appropriate.
1. United Kingdom
Entry: Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free
Politics: Who knows how many votes the UK will get, there are the usual few countries that hand over their twelve points, but as the UK has generally steered away from winding up Europe, it looks like for once the song may be judged on it's merits which can only be a good thing.
Last Year: 11th
Best Result: Winners 1997, 1981, 1976, 1969, 1967
Hero: Sir Cliff Richard, typical of the UK's involvement, he finished 2nd in 1968 (UK has 14 2nd place finishes) and third in 1973
Best Friends: Ireland, Austria, Portugal
Music: A dreary ballad, had me searching for a rope. It's poor, I have no idea why anyone would want to pick up their phone and vote for this.
Best Odds: 20/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Despite 'The Hump' getting involved, this song was doomed to fail. 11th-15th for me.
2. Hungary
Entry : Compact Disco - Sound Of Our Hearts
"Hungary making a bid for an electronics advert soundtrack. It's garbage, get it off.#Eurovision"
Politics: Suffered ever since the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and that episode of McGyver that is just film from the Italian job. As with many Eastern European countries, they got their best result on debut and have been rotten since. Somehow they have friends in Scandinavia and that could help them get a few votes as the Scandinavian bloc has a near full quota.
Last Year: 22nd
Best Result: 4th 1994
Hero: Fredeika Bayer, owner of that fourth position finish
Best Friends: Finland, Iceland, Poland
Music: Rocky ballad, performance exhibits some passion, but the lyrics are meaningless and weak.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Grim, it's not the greatest of songs and it's not the greatest position in the running order. I don't think they'll finish last though.
3. Albania
Entry: Rona Nishilu - Suus
"Scream if you love Albania, oh she has.#Eurovision"
"Albanian hairstyles are a bit behind the rest of us.#Eurovision"
Politics: Firmly in the Balkan bloc, they have been competing since 2004 and they only seem to miss the final when they sing in Albanian, so it is a surprise to see them get this far. They don't have many enemies, but they don't have too many friends either. They should chuck a few points the UK's way as Albanians are mad for Norman Wisdom.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 7th 2004
Hero: Anjeza Shahin, their first ever entry
Best Friends: Macedonia, Greece, Switzerland
Music: She stands on stage, sings for a bit then starts bawling. Just like bonfire night, keep your dogs away from this.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I hate it, you'll hate it, the whole of Europe will hate it. Probably last.
4. Lithuania
Entry: Donny Montell - Love Is Blind
"The diamante blindfold and disco music makes me sick.#Eurovision"
Politics: Part of the ever increasing Baltic bloc, they can count on Estonia and Latvia's votes, as well as a few from the Scandinavians, Russia and Belarus. No real hope for widespread support across Europe however as they haven't made much of an impact, and their song isn't good enough to warrant that support.
Last Year: 19th
Best Result: 6th 2006
Hero: Ovidijus Vyšniauskas, he couldn't even get a point in the semi-finals
Best Friends: Latvia, Ireland, UK
Music: First half ballad, second half disco. All rubbish and painful to listen to.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dead in the water, will be happy if it finishes in front of Albania, should be embarrassed if it doesn't.
5. Bosnia
Entry: MayaSar - Korake ti znam
"Bosnian ballad makes me weepy.#Eurovision"
Politics: Solid member of the Balkan bloc, and based on the dross that precedes them in the running order, could be a hoover for points. If you take into account that the other Balkan entries are mince, this song could get a fair few 12 pointers, so could end up giving layers a red face.
Last Year: 6th
Best Result: 3rd 2006
Hero: Hari Mata Hari, the 3rd place getter
Best Friends: Croatia, Turkey, Slovenia
Music: A powerful ballad in Bosnian, not an elaborate performance, but she's got a great voice, and that's what should matter.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Bet365)
Prospects: I'm a big fan and given the position in the running order, a good recent history at the event and the fact that it goes against the grain by having a slower song, I give it a big chance, certainly bigger than the layers do.
6. Russia
Entry: Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody
"Tatu they are not.#Eurovision"
"That had winner written all over it.#Eurovision"
Politics: The supreme power in Europe, literally has the power to turn out the lights. Putin's (re-)election wasn't to warmly received in Russia, however the UK, France and Germany will be delighted that their gas supplies are safe for now. It remains to seen if they can retain the crown so soon after their 2008 triumph, but the anti-Stalin grannies could do it.
Last Year: 7th
Best Result: Winners 2008
Hero: Dima Bilan and Evgeni Plushenko, one of the finest choreographed performance in the history of Eurovision.
Best Friends: Estonia, Latvia, Israel
Music: It's 6 grannies singing a song the Cheeky Girls would be proud of whilst their magic pasty oven spins in the background. What's not to love?
Best Odds: 13/2 (Ladbrokes)
Prospects: Hilariously strong, the song blends the traditional Eurovision cheese with a back-story that would have X factor finalists weeping. The Babushki are trying to raise money to rebuild their church that was torn down by Stalin's forces 70 odd years ago. Aww. Well worth a cheeky fiver.
7. Iceland
Entry: Greta Salome & Jonsi - Never Forget
"Iceland were strong, they could smash this tonight.#Eurovision"
Politics: Mostly neutral in European affairs, until they started messing with British fish, collapsing economies and destroying holidays with their volcanoes.
They vote in the Scandinavian bloc, but they're the outsiders of that group. Most of Europe's holiday makers have gotten over Eyjafjallajokull so they might get some votes.
Last Year: 20th
Best Result: 2nd 2009, 1999
Hero: Jonsi, this is his second appearance representing Iceland
Best Friends: Sweden, Norway, Denmark
Music: Strong ballad, Greta plays the violin, it's in with a shout, despite her horsey looking face.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Decent EW shout, will get plenty of Scandinavian votes and should be strong with the juries.
8. Cyprus
Entry: Ivi Adamou - La La Love
"Surely she used to be a bloke? Cyprus out tonight I think.#Eurovision"
Politics: Not much of a player on Eurovision scene due to their dodgy geographical location and political position stuck between Greece and Turkey, although Greece and Turkey tend to exchange 12 points like teenage saliva. Cyprus usually suffers as their public vote to choose their act often ends up picking a young, unknown Cypriot to represent them.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 5th 2004, 1997, 1982
Hero: Lisa Andreas, 5th in 2004
Best Friends: Greece, UK, Malta
Music: Upbeat dance number with what appears to be a dancing bench. It's kinda catchy and I'm happy to say I've changed my view from Tuesday night
Best Odds: 50/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Without too many allies across Europe it's going to be tough to scrape the votes together, especially as the other dance tracks seem to be more popular with the public. The dance bench is worked into the performance well, but nothing else seems to happen.
9. France
Entry: Anggun - Echo (You and I)
Politics: It's early days yet for Francois Hollande, but the noises being made form Paris aren't likely to be received well by the rest of the EU. The other Eurozone countries might have to preach their austerity in terms of donating points to France. We don't have a semi-final result to gauge what that level of support is, but my guess is they wouldn't have qualified.
Last Year: 15th
Best Result: Winners 1977 1969 1962 1960 1958
Hero: Marie Myriam 1977 winner
Best Friends: Switzerland, Norway, Greece
Music: Awful, it offends my ears, repetitive tuneless crap.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dire, it's a horrible song, they're knee deep in controversy, and to top it all off they're French.
10. Italy
Entry: Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina
Politics: Where do you start, since the disposal of Berlusconi and the downgrading of their credit rating, the Italians haven't exactly been the most popular in Europe. At least Berlusconi wasn't strung up from a lamppost. They also tend to go in the huff with Eurovision and pull out every few years, so I suppose we should be thankful they're here this year.
Last Year: 2nd
Best Result: Winner 1990, 1964
Hero: Gigliola Cinquetti, 1964 winner
Best Friends: Portugal, Spain, Finland
Music: Winehouse-esque Italian/English mix. Not my cup of tea, but plenty will enjoy it.
Best Odds: 11/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could go one better than last year, plenty of appeal in the song itself, but the Italians aren't really a part of any big voting bloc, so they may be counting on charity from across the Adriatic.
11. Estonia
Entry: Ott Lepland - Kuula
"Heart-throb ladies? Estonia defying their huge price with this effort.#Eurovision"
Politics: Firm member of the Baltic bloc, but has a poor recent record. They will benefit from Latvia and Finland's absence and possibly scrape a few Scandinavian votes. They have a lot of public support for the competition which reversed the decision to pull out of the 2009 contest, and they don't make enemies in Europe.
Last Year: 24th
Best Result: Winner 2001
Hero: Tanel Padar, 2001 winner
Best Friends : Finland, Sweden, Ireland
Music: Another ballad from the second semi, well performed and simply presented, but Ott is the star of Estonian high school musical, and I'm reliably informed he's a cute guy, so that could sway a few female votes.
Best Odds: 100/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Given that this track struggles with the Estonian jury in the selection process, you'd think they'd be in trouble, but I'm not sure, it's a good song, Ott has a strong voice, and it will be popular with the voters across Europe, chance at a big price.
12. Norway
Entry: Tooji - Stay
Politics: Enjoys the support of the Scandinavian bloc, but not universally popular because of their flirtation and teasing with EU membership. With the Brevik trial coming so close to Eurovision it's fresh in voters' minds and could play a part in who they decide to cast that vote for. Norway officially have the worst record of any participant at Eurovision, despite winning the contest 3 times, they have finished last on 10 occasions
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2009, 1995, 1985
Hero: Anita Thallaug, nul points 1963
Best Friends: Sweden, Ireland, Iceland
Music: It's so forgettable, I just listened to it to jog my memory from Thursday, and I've forgotten it again. It's just bland rubbish.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could be ten times that price and still not worth it. Use this opportunity for a tea break.
13. Azerbaijan
Entry: Sabina Babayeva - When the Music Dies
Politics: New boys on the scene, this is their fifth competition and their worst result is 8th. The novelty may be wearing off, and I expect their support to wane in the not too distant future
Last Year: Winner obviously
Best Result: Winner 2011
Hero: Eldar, our AZ-ER-BAI-JAN host.
Best Friends: Turkey, Ukraine, Russia
Music: It's almost immaterial what the music sounds like, they can't win back to back.
Best Odds: 66/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: None, the last back-to-back winner were Ireland when they knocked in a three-timer in the early 90s and as such, we're highly unlikely to see another back-to-back for a while if at all.
14. Romania
Entry: Mandinga - Zaleilah
"You will hear this in every club in Malia, Magaluf etc this summer. Get in Romania.#Eurovision"
"He's got bagpipes, that gets my vote on Saturday.#Eurovision"
Politics: New boys in the EU, but starting to get the same treatment in Western countries as Poles etc. Embraced capitalism and Eurovision, entering for the first time in 1994. Never missed the final since the introduction of the semi-finals in 2004
Last Year: 17th
Best Result: 3rd 2010, 2005
Hero: Paula Selling & Ovi, 3rd in 2010
Best Friends: Spain, Moldova, Israel
Music: Dance track, with five guys pretending to play instruments. The highlight of the performance is the moon-walking bagpipe player at the start. The singer also looks a bit like Tulisa, but with her mouth empty.
Best Odds: 25/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: I like the track and I feel it'll resonate across Europe, my only concern being the juries may not be too keen on it.
15. Denmark
Entry: Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better
"Instantly forgettable from Denmark.#Eurovision"
Politics: Firmly ingrained in the Scandanavian bloc, hasn't made any big political moves in Europe which has helped them slip under the radar in this competition and they should be top 10.
Last Year: 5th
Best Result: Winner 2000, 1963
Hero: Jorgen and Niels Olsen, Fly on the Wings of Love 2000 winner
Best Friends: Norway, Iceland, Sweden
Music: Easy listening background music when you trying to concentrate on something far more important. does have a double bass mime and a xylophone solo though.
Best Odds: 40/1
Prospect: Most will have forgotten the track by the time it's finished, plus it's sandwiched in the running order between two far more popular tracks.
16. Greece
Entry: Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac
"Catchy tune Greece, 10/1 looks good about now. Not too racy, but certainly going for the lads vote.#Eurovision"
Politics: Everybody in Europe hates these plate-smashing, debt-defaulting, neo-Nazi voting, man-boy love purveyors. Somehow they've managed to finish top ten every year since 2004. Except Cyprus, the entire Eurozone blames Greece for their fiscal difficulties
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winners 2005
Hero: Helena Paparizou, winner in 2005, 3rd in 2001
Best Friends: Cyprus, Spain, UK
Music: It's catchy enough and the lads will enjoy the wind machines and the skimpy outfit.
Best Odds: 50/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: Minimal, they've got one of the worst time-slots possible, right next to Sweden.
17. Sweden
Entry: Loreen - Euphoria
"Overrated nonsense from Sweden. Get it to fuck.#Eurovision"
"Probably the most chart ready entry though. Can see why money is coming for it.#Eurovision"
Politics: Probably the leader of the Scandinavian bloc and has great past form in Eurovision for bring the most successful act to ever perform in the Contest
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winner 1999, 1991, 1984, 1974
Hero: ABBA
Best Friends: Norway, Denmark, UK
Music: I'm not a big fan, the song itself is bearable, but it's the performance that annoys me, the hippie nonsense of pushing the energy around and her stupid crab shuffle during the first chorus.
Best Odds: 5/4 (Boylesports)
Prospects: If she wins, good luck, if not, good for the music industry and TV viewers everywhere.
18. Turkey
Entry: Can Bonomo - Love Me Back
"Looks like the Turks are still taking fashion advice from Assassins Creed revelations.#Eurovision"
"Annoyingly catchy from Turkey, got stupid money on that.#Eurovision"
Politics: Murky at best, outsiders in Europe and outsiders in Asia, probably not the best way to try and win a popularity contest across Europe. The influx of Western European tourists has helped broaden Turkey's appeal and the adoption of Turkish cuisine as a new 3am snack should grab a few UK votes
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2003
Hero: Sertab Erener, winner.
Best Friends: Germany, France, Netherlands
Music: It's a jaunty little tune, reminiscent of the Inspector Gadget theme tune and it does have some spectacular choreography when the dancers construct a boat onstage.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Betfred)
Prospect: Despite the position in the line-up, I still think this track could grab some votes and finish towards the top of the table.
19. Spain
Entry: Pastora Soler - Quédate conmigo
Politics: Relatively safe, usually votes with Portugal and the other Latin countries, taken a bit of heat over it's economy but nowhere near
Last Year: 23rd
Best Result: Winner 1969, 1968
Hero: Julio Iglesias, 4th in 1970
Best Friends: Portugal, Greece, Switzerland
Music: Belting big song, could be a winner with the voters and the juries alike, but hasn't won in over 40 years.
Best Odds: 33/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Not brilliant, but could be due a win after all these years.
20. Germany
Entry:Roman Lob - Standing Still
Politics: Flexed it's muscles during the economic crisis, but starting to feel a bit of backlash from the new French administration and voters in Greece. Could be seen as rising above the rest of Europe in a big brother type role, the rest of Europe remembers how that went last time and will be keen to avoid a repeat.
Last Year: 10th
Best Result: Winner 2010, 1982
Hero: Lena, first winner since re-unification
Best Friends: Spain, Denmark, Portugal
Music: Middle of the road ballad, but Germany has had some success with songs in English
Best Odds: 40/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: Relatively poor, it's a decent song, but their challenge this year is hampered by their political position.
21. Malta
Entry: Kurt Calleja - This Is The Night
"Much better Malta. Quality effort. That's a finalist.#Eurovision"
Politics: It's little Malta, everyone like Malta, but nobody really votes for them. Being an island in the middle of the Med does have it's disadvantages believe it or not. Solidarity with the UK due to being a former member of the British Empire both sides actions regarding HMS Illustrious during the Second World War
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 2nd 2005, 2002
Hero: Chiara, 2nd in 2005 and 3rd in 1998
Best Friends:Ireland, Croatia, Turkey
Music: Great little tune, with the exception of the female backing singer who's English is pretty poor along with her command of her pitch, but clearly the best dance moves of the field, and the shuffle will be going into my repertoire
Best Odds: 150/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Limited, doesn't have the political capital to cash in on this great spot in the running order. Should be a vote-winner, but not sure how Europe will like it.
22. FYR Macedonia
Entry: Kaliopi - Crno i belo
"Decent effort from Macedonia. Brought along their own Bonnie Tyler this year.#Eurovision"
Politics: Balkan through and through and with less Balkan states than expected in the final, they could get a lot more votes than they should, especially sitting so late in the line-up.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 12th 2006
Hero: Vlado Javenski, debut performer in 1998
Best Friends: Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia
Music: Gravelly, screeching ballad. Shouldn't be that popular but seems to have some appeal.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Stan James)
Prospects: Slim, a lot of voters will be put off by the vocal performance, and the juries won't be too impressed either.
23. Ireland
Entry: Jedward - Waterline
"A walking advert for abortion. Give my "my lovely horse" anyday.#Eurovision"
"Those two fuckers could drown in a shower.#Eurovision"
"Jedward are too stupid to live.#Eurovision"
Politics: Ireland's liability across Europe seems to have dampened and their back to their stereotypical slow-thinking jovial drinking selves in European eyes. Probably brought the most exposed performers to the show, and their broad appeal should be a help to Irish chances
Last Year: 8th
Best Result: Winners 1996, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1980, 1970
Hero: Father Ted Crilly and Father Dougal McGuire
Best Friends: UK, Sweden, Switzerland
Music: Really catchy bubblegum pop track, upbeat, strong lyrics and a standout performance from the semi-final with the water fountain
Best Odds: 33/1 (SportingBet)
Prospects: I think it's great track and it will connect with the viewers across Europe it's in a perfect spot in the order and the lads just need to refrain from going completely over the top in their performance and they could have a winner on their hands
24. Serbia
Entry: Zeljko Joksimovic - Nije Ljubav Stvar
"Not that impressive from Serbia. Wouldn't be a surprise if they don't make it.#Eurovision"
Politics: One of the Balkan states left in the competition, so there are plenty of votes available, certainly improved their standing in Europe in the last 5 years, and if they could just stop producing war criminals, they'd be doing much better than they have been.
Last Year: 14th
Best Result: Winner 2007
Hero: Marija Šerifović, winner in 2007, the first song in Serbian to win.
Best Friends: Bosnia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Music: Dreadful ballad, it appears to be all the Serbians like to listen too.
Best Odds: 10/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I just don't see the appeal of the song, and I can't understand how it can be so short in the market. I certainly won't be voting for it.
25. Ukraine
Entry: Gaintana - Be My Guest
Politics: Dodgy, although they are getting ready to co-host the European championships, Yulia Tymoshenko still resides in prison and she has plenty of friends in Europe, can't seem them overcoming that, twinned with the furore over prices of hotels for travelling football fans.
Last Year: 4th
Best Result: Winner 2004
Hero: Ruslana, and her wild dances
Best Friends: Poland, Russia, Belarus
Music: It's a dance track straight out of 1992
Best Odds: 40/1 (Betfred)
Prospects: Ukraine has a great record in Eurovision, but I'm inclined to oppose them due to their sticky political situation and the fact I don't like their track.
26. Moldova
Entry: Pasha Parfeny - Lautar
"Moldovan Chico with Moldovan Saturdays. I used to enjoy Moldova's entry, but this is tame by their standards.#Eurovision"
Politics: A newcomer to the event, they vote with the Balkans and the Black Sea blocs, they have consistently qualified from the semi-finals and they do usually pick out a memorable performer for our entertainment like Zdob si Zdub. They haven't been that successful in the competition itself, but they do have a tremendous online support.
Last Year: 12th
Best Result: 6th 2005
Hero: Sergey Stepanov EPIC SAX GUY
Best Friends: Romania, Portugal, Ukraine
Music: It's cheesy Eurovision finest. Parts of the song are in English, yet the quality of English is laughable.
Best Odds: 100/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: None whatsoever
ADVICE
Estonia 0.5pt EW @ 100/1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.5pt EW @ 150/1
Cyprus 0.5pt EW @ 50/1
Turkey 0.5pt EW @ 80/1
Ireland 0.5pt EW @ 33/1
1. United Kingdom
Entry: Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free
Politics: Who knows how many votes the UK will get, there are the usual few countries that hand over their twelve points, but as the UK has generally steered away from winding up Europe, it looks like for once the song may be judged on it's merits which can only be a good thing.
Last Year: 11th
Best Result: Winners 1997, 1981, 1976, 1969, 1967
Hero: Sir Cliff Richard, typical of the UK's involvement, he finished 2nd in 1968 (UK has 14 2nd place finishes) and third in 1973
Best Friends: Ireland, Austria, Portugal
Music: A dreary ballad, had me searching for a rope. It's poor, I have no idea why anyone would want to pick up their phone and vote for this.
Best Odds: 20/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Despite 'The Hump' getting involved, this song was doomed to fail. 11th-15th for me.
2. Hungary
Entry : Compact Disco - Sound Of Our Hearts
"Hungary making a bid for an electronics advert soundtrack. It's garbage, get it off.
Politics: Suffered ever since the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and that episode of McGyver that is just film from the Italian job. As with many Eastern European countries, they got their best result on debut and have been rotten since. Somehow they have friends in Scandinavia and that could help them get a few votes as the Scandinavian bloc has a near full quota.
Last Year: 22nd
Best Result: 4th 1994
Hero: Fredeika Bayer, owner of that fourth position finish
Best Friends: Finland, Iceland, Poland
Music: Rocky ballad, performance exhibits some passion, but the lyrics are meaningless and weak.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Grim, it's not the greatest of songs and it's not the greatest position in the running order. I don't think they'll finish last though.
3. Albania
Entry: Rona Nishilu - Suus
"Scream if you love Albania, oh she has.
"Albanian hairstyles are a bit behind the rest of us.
Politics: Firmly in the Balkan bloc, they have been competing since 2004 and they only seem to miss the final when they sing in Albanian, so it is a surprise to see them get this far. They don't have many enemies, but they don't have too many friends either. They should chuck a few points the UK's way as Albanians are mad for Norman Wisdom.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 7th 2004
Hero: Anjeza Shahin, their first ever entry
Best Friends: Macedonia, Greece, Switzerland
Music: She stands on stage, sings for a bit then starts bawling. Just like bonfire night, keep your dogs away from this.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I hate it, you'll hate it, the whole of Europe will hate it. Probably last.
4. Lithuania
Entry: Donny Montell - Love Is Blind
"The diamante blindfold and disco music makes me sick.
Politics: Part of the ever increasing Baltic bloc, they can count on Estonia and Latvia's votes, as well as a few from the Scandinavians, Russia and Belarus. No real hope for widespread support across Europe however as they haven't made much of an impact, and their song isn't good enough to warrant that support.
Last Year: 19th
Best Result: 6th 2006
Hero: Ovidijus Vyšniauskas, he couldn't even get a point in the semi-finals
Best Friends: Latvia, Ireland, UK
Music: First half ballad, second half disco. All rubbish and painful to listen to.
Best Odds: 250/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dead in the water, will be happy if it finishes in front of Albania, should be embarrassed if it doesn't.
5. Bosnia
Entry: MayaSar - Korake ti znam
"Bosnian ballad makes me weepy.
Politics: Solid member of the Balkan bloc, and based on the dross that precedes them in the running order, could be a hoover for points. If you take into account that the other Balkan entries are mince, this song could get a fair few 12 pointers, so could end up giving layers a red face.
Last Year: 6th
Best Result: 3rd 2006
Hero: Hari Mata Hari, the 3rd place getter
Best Friends: Croatia, Turkey, Slovenia
Music: A powerful ballad in Bosnian, not an elaborate performance, but she's got a great voice, and that's what should matter.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Bet365)
Prospects: I'm a big fan and given the position in the running order, a good recent history at the event and the fact that it goes against the grain by having a slower song, I give it a big chance, certainly bigger than the layers do.
6. Russia
Entry: Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody
"Tatu they are not.
"That had winner written all over it.
Politics: The supreme power in Europe, literally has the power to turn out the lights. Putin's (re-)election wasn't to warmly received in Russia, however the UK, France and Germany will be delighted that their gas supplies are safe for now. It remains to seen if they can retain the crown so soon after their 2008 triumph, but the anti-Stalin grannies could do it.
Last Year: 7th
Best Result: Winners 2008
Hero: Dima Bilan and Evgeni Plushenko, one of the finest choreographed performance in the history of Eurovision.
Best Friends: Estonia, Latvia, Israel
Music: It's 6 grannies singing a song the Cheeky Girls would be proud of whilst their magic pasty oven spins in the background. What's not to love?
Best Odds: 13/2 (Ladbrokes)
Prospects: Hilariously strong, the song blends the traditional Eurovision cheese with a back-story that would have X factor finalists weeping. The Babushki are trying to raise money to rebuild their church that was torn down by Stalin's forces 70 odd years ago. Aww. Well worth a cheeky fiver.
7. Iceland
Entry: Greta Salome & Jonsi - Never Forget
"Iceland were strong, they could smash this tonight.
Politics: Mostly neutral in European affairs, until they started messing with British fish, collapsing economies and destroying holidays with their volcanoes.
Last Year: 20th
Best Result: 2nd 2009, 1999
Hero: Jonsi, this is his second appearance representing Iceland
Best Friends: Sweden, Norway, Denmark
Music: Strong ballad, Greta plays the violin, it's in with a shout, despite her horsey looking face.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Decent EW shout, will get plenty of Scandinavian votes and should be strong with the juries.
8. Cyprus
Entry: Ivi Adamou - La La Love
"Surely she used to be a bloke? Cyprus out tonight I think.
Politics: Not much of a player on Eurovision scene due to their dodgy geographical location and political position stuck between Greece and Turkey, although Greece and Turkey tend to exchange 12 points like teenage saliva. Cyprus usually suffers as their public vote to choose their act often ends up picking a young, unknown Cypriot to represent them.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 5th 2004, 1997, 1982
Hero: Lisa Andreas, 5th in 2004
Best Friends: Greece, UK, Malta
Music: Upbeat dance number with what appears to be a dancing bench. It's kinda catchy and I'm happy to say I've changed my view from Tuesday night
Best Odds: 50/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Without too many allies across Europe it's going to be tough to scrape the votes together, especially as the other dance tracks seem to be more popular with the public. The dance bench is worked into the performance well, but nothing else seems to happen.
9. France
Entry: Anggun - Echo (You and I)
Politics: It's early days yet for Francois Hollande, but the noises being made form Paris aren't likely to be received well by the rest of the EU. The other Eurozone countries might have to preach their austerity in terms of donating points to France. We don't have a semi-final result to gauge what that level of support is, but my guess is they wouldn't have qualified.
Last Year: 15th
Best Result: Winners 1977 1969 1962 1960 1958
Hero: Marie Myriam 1977 winner
Best Friends: Switzerland, Norway, Greece
Music: Awful, it offends my ears, repetitive tuneless crap.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Dire, it's a horrible song, they're knee deep in controversy, and to top it all off they're French.
10. Italy
Entry: Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina
Politics: Where do you start, since the disposal of Berlusconi and the downgrading of their credit rating, the Italians haven't exactly been the most popular in Europe. At least Berlusconi wasn't strung up from a lamppost. They also tend to go in the huff with Eurovision and pull out every few years, so I suppose we should be thankful they're here this year.
Last Year: 2nd
Best Result: Winner 1990, 1964
Hero: Gigliola Cinquetti, 1964 winner
Best Friends: Portugal, Spain, Finland
Music: Winehouse-esque Italian/English mix. Not my cup of tea, but plenty will enjoy it.
Best Odds: 11/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could go one better than last year, plenty of appeal in the song itself, but the Italians aren't really a part of any big voting bloc, so they may be counting on charity from across the Adriatic.
11. Estonia
Entry: Ott Lepland - Kuula
"Heart-throb ladies? Estonia defying their huge price with this effort.
Politics: Firm member of the Baltic bloc, but has a poor recent record. They will benefit from Latvia and Finland's absence and possibly scrape a few Scandinavian votes. They have a lot of public support for the competition which reversed the decision to pull out of the 2009 contest, and they don't make enemies in Europe.
Last Year: 24th
Best Result: Winner 2001
Hero: Tanel Padar, 2001 winner
Best Friends : Finland, Sweden, Ireland
Music: Another ballad from the second semi, well performed and simply presented, but Ott is the star of Estonian high school musical, and I'm reliably informed he's a cute guy, so that could sway a few female votes.
Best Odds: 100/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Given that this track struggles with the Estonian jury in the selection process, you'd think they'd be in trouble, but I'm not sure, it's a good song, Ott has a strong voice, and it will be popular with the voters across Europe, chance at a big price.
12. Norway
Entry: Tooji - Stay
"We'll see Norway on Saturday, but never
again after that. #Eurovision"
Politics: Enjoys the support of the Scandinavian bloc, but not universally popular because of their flirtation and teasing with EU membership. With the Brevik trial coming so close to Eurovision it's fresh in voters' minds and could play a part in who they decide to cast that vote for. Norway officially have the worst record of any participant at Eurovision, despite winning the contest 3 times, they have finished last on 10 occasions
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2009, 1995, 1985
Hero: Anita Thallaug, nul points 1963
Best Friends: Sweden, Ireland, Iceland
Music: It's so forgettable, I just listened to it to jog my memory from Thursday, and I've forgotten it again. It's just bland rubbish.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Could be ten times that price and still not worth it. Use this opportunity for a tea break.
13. Azerbaijan
Entry: Sabina Babayeva - When the Music Dies
Politics: New boys on the scene, this is their fifth competition and their worst result is 8th. The novelty may be wearing off, and I expect their support to wane in the not too distant future
Last Year: Winner obviously
Best Result: Winner 2011
Hero: Eldar, our AZ-ER-BAI-JAN host.
Best Friends: Turkey, Ukraine, Russia
Music: It's almost immaterial what the music sounds like, they can't win back to back.
Best Odds: 66/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: None, the last back-to-back winner were Ireland when they knocked in a three-timer in the early 90s and as such, we're highly unlikely to see another back-to-back for a while if at all.
14. Romania
Entry: Mandinga - Zaleilah
"You will hear this in every club in Malia, Magaluf etc this summer. Get in Romania.
"He's got bagpipes, that gets my vote on Saturday.
Politics: New boys in the EU, but starting to get the same treatment in Western countries as Poles etc. Embraced capitalism and Eurovision, entering for the first time in 1994. Never missed the final since the introduction of the semi-finals in 2004
Last Year: 17th
Best Result: 3rd 2010, 2005
Hero: Paula Selling & Ovi, 3rd in 2010
Best Friends: Spain, Moldova, Israel
Music: Dance track, with five guys pretending to play instruments. The highlight of the performance is the moon-walking bagpipe player at the start. The singer also looks a bit like Tulisa, but with her mouth empty.
Best Odds: 25/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: I like the track and I feel it'll resonate across Europe, my only concern being the juries may not be too keen on it.
15. Denmark
Entry: Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better
"Instantly forgettable from Denmark.
Politics: Firmly ingrained in the Scandanavian bloc, hasn't made any big political moves in Europe which has helped them slip under the radar in this competition and they should be top 10.
Last Year: 5th
Best Result: Winner 2000, 1963
Hero: Jorgen and Niels Olsen, Fly on the Wings of Love 2000 winner
Best Friends: Norway, Iceland, Sweden
Music: Easy listening background music when you trying to concentrate on something far more important. does have a double bass mime and a xylophone solo though.
Best Odds: 40/1
Prospect: Most will have forgotten the track by the time it's finished, plus it's sandwiched in the running order between two far more popular tracks.
16. Greece
Entry: Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac
"Catchy tune Greece, 10/1 looks good about now. Not too racy, but certainly going for the lads vote.
Politics: Everybody in Europe hates these plate-smashing, debt-defaulting, neo-Nazi voting, man-boy love purveyors. Somehow they've managed to finish top ten every year since 2004. Except Cyprus, the entire Eurozone blames Greece for their fiscal difficulties
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winners 2005
Hero: Helena Paparizou, winner in 2005, 3rd in 2001
Best Friends: Cyprus, Spain, UK
Music: It's catchy enough and the lads will enjoy the wind machines and the skimpy outfit.
Best Odds: 50/1 (BetFred)
Prospect: Minimal, they've got one of the worst time-slots possible, right next to Sweden.
17. Sweden
Entry: Loreen - Euphoria
"Overrated nonsense from Sweden. Get it to fuck.
"Probably the most chart ready entry though. Can see why money is coming for it.
Politics: Probably the leader of the Scandinavian bloc and has great past form in Eurovision for bring the most successful act to ever perform in the Contest
Last Year: 3rd
Best Result: Winner 1999, 1991, 1984, 1974
Hero: ABBA
Best Friends: Norway, Denmark, UK
Music: I'm not a big fan, the song itself is bearable, but it's the performance that annoys me, the hippie nonsense of pushing the energy around and her stupid crab shuffle during the first chorus.
Best Odds: 5/4 (Boylesports)
Prospects: If she wins, good luck, if not, good for the music industry and TV viewers everywhere.
18. Turkey
Entry: Can Bonomo - Love Me Back
"Looks like the Turks are still taking fashion advice from Assassins Creed revelations.
"Annoyingly catchy from Turkey, got stupid money on that.
Politics: Murky at best, outsiders in Europe and outsiders in Asia, probably not the best way to try and win a popularity contest across Europe. The influx of Western European tourists has helped broaden Turkey's appeal and the adoption of Turkish cuisine as a new 3am snack should grab a few UK votes
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: Winner 2003
Hero: Sertab Erener, winner.
Best Friends: Germany, France, Netherlands
Music: It's a jaunty little tune, reminiscent of the Inspector Gadget theme tune and it does have some spectacular choreography when the dancers construct a boat onstage.
Best Odds: 80/1 (Betfred)
Prospect: Despite the position in the line-up, I still think this track could grab some votes and finish towards the top of the table.
19. Spain
Entry: Pastora Soler - Quédate conmigo
Politics: Relatively safe, usually votes with Portugal and the other Latin countries, taken a bit of heat over it's economy but nowhere near
Last Year: 23rd
Best Result: Winner 1969, 1968
Hero: Julio Iglesias, 4th in 1970
Best Friends: Portugal, Greece, Switzerland
Music: Belting big song, could be a winner with the voters and the juries alike, but hasn't won in over 40 years.
Best Odds: 33/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: Not brilliant, but could be due a win after all these years.
20. Germany
Entry:Roman Lob - Standing Still
Politics: Flexed it's muscles during the economic crisis, but starting to feel a bit of backlash from the new French administration and voters in Greece. Could be seen as rising above the rest of Europe in a big brother type role, the rest of Europe remembers how that went last time and will be keen to avoid a repeat.
Last Year: 10th
Best Result: Winner 2010, 1982
Hero: Lena, first winner since re-unification
Best Friends: Spain, Denmark, Portugal
Music: Middle of the road ballad, but Germany has had some success with songs in English
Best Odds: 40/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: Relatively poor, it's a decent song, but their challenge this year is hampered by their political position.
21. Malta
Entry: Kurt Calleja - This Is The Night
"Much better Malta. Quality effort. That's a finalist.
Politics: It's little Malta, everyone like Malta, but nobody really votes for them. Being an island in the middle of the Med does have it's disadvantages believe it or not. Solidarity with the UK due to being a former member of the British Empire both sides actions regarding HMS Illustrious during the Second World War
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 2nd 2005, 2002
Hero: Chiara, 2nd in 2005 and 3rd in 1998
Best Friends:Ireland, Croatia, Turkey
Music: Great little tune, with the exception of the female backing singer who's English is pretty poor along with her command of her pitch, but clearly the best dance moves of the field, and the shuffle will be going into my repertoire
Best Odds: 150/1 (bwin)
Prospects: Limited, doesn't have the political capital to cash in on this great spot in the running order. Should be a vote-winner, but not sure how Europe will like it.
22. FYR Macedonia
Entry: Kaliopi - Crno i belo
"Decent effort from Macedonia. Brought along their own Bonnie Tyler this year.
Politics: Balkan through and through and with less Balkan states than expected in the final, they could get a lot more votes than they should, especially sitting so late in the line-up.
Last Year: Did Not Qualify
Best Result: 12th 2006
Hero: Vlado Javenski, debut performer in 1998
Best Friends: Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia
Music: Gravelly, screeching ballad. Shouldn't be that popular but seems to have some appeal.
Best Odds: 150/1 (Stan James)
Prospects: Slim, a lot of voters will be put off by the vocal performance, and the juries won't be too impressed either.
23. Ireland
Entry: Jedward - Waterline
"A walking advert for abortion. Give my "my lovely horse" anyday.
"Those two fuckers could drown in a shower.
"Jedward are too stupid to live.
Politics: Ireland's liability across Europe seems to have dampened and their back to their stereotypical slow-thinking jovial drinking selves in European eyes. Probably brought the most exposed performers to the show, and their broad appeal should be a help to Irish chances
Last Year: 8th
Best Result: Winners 1996, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1980, 1970
Hero: Father Ted Crilly and Father Dougal McGuire
Best Friends: UK, Sweden, Switzerland
Music: Really catchy bubblegum pop track, upbeat, strong lyrics and a standout performance from the semi-final with the water fountain
Best Odds: 33/1 (SportingBet)
Prospects: I think it's great track and it will connect with the viewers across Europe it's in a perfect spot in the order and the lads just need to refrain from going completely over the top in their performance and they could have a winner on their hands
24. Serbia
Entry: Zeljko Joksimovic - Nije Ljubav Stvar
"Not that impressive from Serbia. Wouldn't be a surprise if they don't make it.
Politics: One of the Balkan states left in the competition, so there are plenty of votes available, certainly improved their standing in Europe in the last 5 years, and if they could just stop producing war criminals, they'd be doing much better than they have been.
Last Year: 14th
Best Result: Winner 2007
Hero: Marija Šerifović, winner in 2007, the first song in Serbian to win.
Best Friends: Bosnia, Slovenia, Switzerland
Music: Dreadful ballad, it appears to be all the Serbians like to listen too.
Best Odds: 10/1 (Boylesports)
Prospects: I just don't see the appeal of the song, and I can't understand how it can be so short in the market. I certainly won't be voting for it.
25. Ukraine
Entry: Gaintana - Be My Guest
Politics: Dodgy, although they are getting ready to co-host the European championships, Yulia Tymoshenko still resides in prison and she has plenty of friends in Europe, can't seem them overcoming that, twinned with the furore over prices of hotels for travelling football fans.
Last Year: 4th
Best Result: Winner 2004
Hero: Ruslana, and her wild dances
Best Friends: Poland, Russia, Belarus
Music: It's a dance track straight out of 1992
Best Odds: 40/1 (Betfred)
Prospects: Ukraine has a great record in Eurovision, but I'm inclined to oppose them due to their sticky political situation and the fact I don't like their track.
26. Moldova
Entry: Pasha Parfeny - Lautar
"Moldovan Chico with Moldovan Saturdays. I used to enjoy Moldova's entry, but this is tame by their standards.
Politics: A newcomer to the event, they vote with the Balkans and the Black Sea blocs, they have consistently qualified from the semi-finals and they do usually pick out a memorable performer for our entertainment like Zdob si Zdub. They haven't been that successful in the competition itself, but they do have a tremendous online support.
Last Year: 12th
Best Result: 6th 2005
Hero: Sergey Stepanov EPIC SAX GUY
Best Friends: Romania, Portugal, Ukraine
Music: It's cheesy Eurovision finest. Parts of the song are in English, yet the quality of English is laughable.
Best Odds: 100/1 (BetFred)
Prospects: None whatsoever
ADVICE
Estonia 0.5pt EW @ 100/1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.5pt EW @ 150/1
Cyprus 0.5pt EW @ 50/1
Turkey 0.5pt EW @ 80/1
Ireland 0.5pt EW @ 33/1
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Collation of Guest Blog Spots
Running Total : +90.32 pts
Jockey Club Stakes
Newmarket, May 5th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/05/jockey-club-stakes-preview-for.html
Results : +28pts, happy with that, carry on
Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Punchestown, April 27th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/punchestown-champion-hurdle-preview.html
Results : +12.35pts, should've been braver.
Maghull Novices' Chase
Aintree, April 14th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/maghull-novices-chase.html
Rsults : +23.6pts, this was an easy one.
Melling Chase
Aintree, April 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/melling-chase-preview.html
Results : -10pts, stinker, move on.
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Meydan, March 31tst
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/golden-shaheen-preview.html
Results : +45pts, bazinga, race run exactly as suspected, favourite split up my exactas otherwise would've been huge.
Grand Annual Chase
Cheltenham, March 16th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/johnny-henderson-grand-annual-chase.html
Results : -8.37pts, not great, but made some positive comments on the winner.
Cross Country Chase
Cheltenham, March 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/cross-country-preview.html
Results: Got the right 2nd place, but nothing else. No pointed staking plan.
Jockey Club Stakes
Newmarket, May 5th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/05/jockey-club-stakes-preview-for.html
Results : +28pts, happy with that, carry on
Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Punchestown, April 27th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/punchestown-champion-hurdle-preview.html
Results : +12.35pts, should've been braver.
Maghull Novices' Chase
Aintree, April 14th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/maghull-novices-chase.html
Rsults : +23.6pts, this was an easy one.
Melling Chase
Aintree, April 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/04/melling-chase-preview.html
Results : -10pts, stinker, move on.
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Meydan, March 31tst
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/golden-shaheen-preview.html
Results : +45pts, bazinga, race run exactly as suspected, favourite split up my exactas otherwise would've been huge.
Grand Annual Chase
Cheltenham, March 16th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/johnny-henderson-grand-annual-chase.html
Results : -8.37pts, not great, but made some positive comments on the winner.
Cross Country Chase
Cheltenham, March 13th
http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/2012/03/cross-country-preview.html
Results: Got the right 2nd place, but nothing else. No pointed staking plan.
Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Western Conference Preview
NHL Playoffs Preview 2012
The most exciting part of the year has arrived, the quest for Lord Stanley's Cup. Sixteen teams remain in the hunt including the defending champion Boston Bruins. Let's have a closer look at this year's opening round match-ups and see if we can find a bit of value to have a punt, or something silly to bet with your mates. We'll finish with the West.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Vancouver Canucks (H: 27-10-4, A: 24-12-5, 111pts)
versus
#8 Los Angeles Kings (H: 22-14-5, A: 18-13-10, 95pts)
What do you do when your team loses Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Finals on home ice? Riot? No, but that's Vancouver's usual answer. Complain about the referees and the other team cheating? No, that's Montreal. The answer is you rebuild, you salvage the good parts from last season and you get rid of the dead weight and find some new parts to make your hockey team work. Credit to them, that's what the Canucks have done, their success has been built on an abundance of skill and a good Power Play, 3rd best amongst the playoff teams. They've also added a bit more grit, something they lacked as the Bruins dismantled them in Game 7. They added Sami Pahlsson, Steven Reinprecht and Zack Kassian and won another President's Trophy, the game plan seems to be the same as last year, but the goaltending has a slight change as Cory Schneider has stepped up and has a better winning percentage, goals against average and save percentage, so barring any Luongo moments, the Canucks are built to go deep.
Key Man: Henrik Sedin, the captain was anonymous in the Finals last year with 1 point, and after leasing the league in assists with 67, he has to be more involved if Vancouver are going to go the distance.
Emerging from the tightest division in the West are the Kings, they were only 2 points off the #3 seed, and as a reward they get to face the reigning Western champs. It's a tough ask and if they're going to have any chance, they have to be disciplined and keep Vancouver off the PP. That said, their penalty killing unit is the 3rd best of the remaining teams, but if you give the Canucks enough opportunities, they'll bury you. Anze Kopitar was the stand out King this season amassing 25 goals and 51 assists. In order to beat Vancouver, LA will need to have their goalie at his best, and he has been outstanding this year. Jonathan Quick leads the league in shutouts with 10 and has a 1.95 GAA and .929 save percentage. He will need to bring those numbers into the postseason, otherwise there could be a slaughter in this series.
Key Man: Jonathan Quick, needs to maintain his regular season form and allow his team-mates to beat Vancouver the same way Tim Thomas did last season.
FIRST GAME: Wednesday 10.30pm ET, NBC
PREDICTION: Progress as usual, Vancouver win in four games. (17/2 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: VAN-VAN-VAN-VAN
EXOTIC BET: Vancouver to score over 6.5 Power Play goals
#2 St. Louis Blues (H: 30-6-5, A: 19-16-6, 109pts)
versus
#7 San Jose Sharks (H: 26-12-3, A: 17-17-7, 96pts)
St. Louis rely on a stellar home record and some mean goaltending, good for success in the playoffs usually, but they struggle at times for offense. In David Backes they have a player being talked about in the Selke Trophy reckoning (that Trophy is Bergeron's, so don't even think about it) and he's also led them in goals and points. The only thing I have against St. Louis is the fact that they have two excellent goaltenders, yes I know, pretty counter-intuitive, but stick with me. This time of the season is all about consistency and Jaroslav Halak has only played 45 games, Brian Elliott has played the other 37, and although both goalies have a sub 2.00 GAA the question remains, who is the number 1 goalie? The last Cup-winning team to have a similar 2 goalie problem was the 2008 Red Wings, and this Blues team just isn't as good. They do however have in their favour Ken Hitchcock as coach, who has steadied the ship this season and turned St. Louis into contenders and he already has a Cup to his name, so he knows how to win this thing.
Key Man: Kevin Shattenkirk, last year he was an All-Star in Colorado, this year he's been a big part of the Blues' success, he needs to shut down the Sharks attacking threat and provide some offense at the other end.
San Jose scrapped their way into the playoffs despite trading Devon Setoguchi and Dany Heatley, they still had Joe Thornton and Logan Couture to drag them to the big show. Joe Pavelski was 3rd in the league in faceoff percentage which becomes important at this time of year, and Antti Niemi was solid in goal with his experience as a Cup winner priceless on this team along with Dan Boyle who came the other way in the Setoguchi trade with Minnesota. Can they go deep, maybe. Will they go deep, probably not. They'll be scrappy and try to nick games by the odd goal, but their dead last penalty kill worries me, and even although they have a strong PP, it's the PK that wins championships, just ask Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
Key Man: Joe Thornton: captain fantastic has seen his old side win the Cup last year, so he'd love to succeed them, and this is one of his last chances.
FIRST GAME: Thursday 7.30pm ET, CNBC
PREDICTION: Stingy defenses, probably rivalling Florida v New Jersey for the most boring first round series, Blues win in five games (4/1 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: STL-STL-SJ-STL-STL
EXOTIC BET: Total Power Play goals in the series under 4.5
#3 Phoenix Coyotes (H: 22-13-6, A: 20-14-7, 97pts)
versus
#6 Chicago Blackhawks (H: 27-8-6, A: 18-18-5, 101 pts)
The Coyotes got over the trade of Ilya Bryzgalov by adding Mike Smith from the Lightning and he's been excellent for one of the worst offensive teams left in the West. They had a stellar February going 11-0-1 and they won their last 5 games to win the Pacific division. Ray Whitney, despite being part of almost every trade rumour at the deadline, stayed in Phoenix and led them in points, assists and plus/minus. This is a strong team, with the emphasis on the team, and they'll need to be that to beat the Hawks. This is likely Phoenix's last season before hopefully moving to Quebec.
Key Man: Shane Doan, has to prove why he's considered in everybody's Norris Trophy shortlists and deal with Chicago's multitude of attacking talents.
The Blackhawks are two years removed from their Cup triumph and have kept intact a large part of that team. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa are the star names, and although Toews missed some of the season he led the league in faceoff percentage at 59.4%. As the Hawks play in the toughest division in the East, they are the #6 seed despite finishing the season 11-2-4 and decent goaltending from Corey Crawford gives them a chance this year. The main issue Chicago has is their woeful special teams. They are 15th of the playoff teams in Power Play efficiency and 15th on the PK. The 78.1% kill could be their killer and they will need to find a way to shut the back door, or keep it 5 on 5. If not this team may struggle to put together another championship run before Toews, Kane and Duncan Keith have to re-sign.
Key Man: Patrick Sharp, at the heart of everything good Chicago does offensively, he has to put his stamp on the series for Chicago to progress.
FIRST GAME: Thursday 10pm ET, NBC
PREDICTION: A back and forth series, the pick of the West first-round, Chicago win in seven games (9/2 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: PHX-CHI-CHI-PHX-PHX-CHI-CHI
EXOTIC BET: Coyotes to score more total goals in the series
#4 Nashville Predators (H: 26-10-5, A: 22-16-3, 104 pts)
versus
#5 Detroit Red Wings (H: 31-7-3, A: 17-21-3, 102pts)
Nashville are built on strong goaltending from Pekka Rinne who led the league with 43 wins, an excellent Power Play at 21.6% and a strong record on their own rink. Add to that Patric Hornqvist's 27 goals and 5 other 15+ goalscorers, they have a pretty balanced offense, able to cause problems for most teams. They have a previous Cup winner in Hal Gill and they should be good to go. What's stopping them, well they don't have a great deal of playoff experience as a group. Last season's win over Anaheim was Nashville's first series win in franchise history, and their opponents are the most successful US team in playoff history, tough task, but I think they can raise their intensity to play with the big boys.
Key Man: Pekka Rinne, has to keep them in the series, especially with Detroit's talent laden line-up.
Detroit is arguably the most talented team in all of hockey. Pavel Datsyuk is a magician, Henrik Zetterberg is also capable of magic, and Valtteri Filppula can change the focus of a game in an instant. So why are the only the #5 seed if they're so good, i hear you ask? They stink away from the Joe, that's why, they have a losing record away from their fortress. So while the octopuses will be flying onto the ice at home, Jimmy Howard will most likely be sprawled in a similar fashion during games in Nashville. They've got a chance, but they will have to nick at least one game away from Detroit and they haven't looked likely to do that so far this season.
Key Man: Valterri Filppula, he's a 23-43-66 man this season and having tasted Cup triumph in 2008, he needs to step up and join Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Lidstrom as a Detroit hero, before the latter turns into a pumpkin (not really, Nick just has to retire this summer, he may think it, but he's not Gordie Howe)
FIRST GAME: Wednesday 8pm ET, CNBC
PREDICTION: Predictable home team dominance, Nashville win in seven games (4/1 @ Bet365)
SEQUENCE: NSH-NSH-DET-DET-NSH-DET-NSH
EXOTIC BET: Total goals scored in the series under 30.5
That's us for the first round, hopefully there'll be plenty of talking points, and I'll see you back here for a Round 2 playoff in a couple of weeks.
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